PETALING JAYA: CIMB Research expects Budget 2026 to provide a mild but broad-based boost to the consumer sector, driven by fiscal initiatives that enhance disposable income and sustain spending momentum.
“We believe that the measures carry an overall positive bias for the consumer sector, primarily supported by targeted fiscal initiatives that enhance disposable income and sustain consumption,” it said.
The research house highlighted that the civil service salary restructuring involving RM18bil in payroll spending from January 2026 would benefit about 1.6 million civil servants, while additional one-off financial aid and cash transfers are expected to support consumption.
“The measures are expected to lift disposable income, particularly among civil servants and lower-income households. We expect this to support spending on daily essentials and value-for-money products, helping to cushion inflationary pressures and sustain retail volume growth into 2026,” it added.
CIMB Reseach expected 99 Speedmart Retail Holdings Bhd, AEON Co (M) Bhd, MR DIY Group (M) Bhd, Nestle (M) Bhd, Fraser & Neave Holdings Bhd, QL Resources Bhd and Farm Fresh Bhd as key beneficiaries of the continued spending strength in staple-driven retail and fast-moving consumer goods.
The introduction of a new RM1,000 domestic leisure tax relief is also viewed as a positive catalyst for leisure, retail, and hospitality segments, potentially boosting discretionary spending among middle-income consumers.
However, the research house cautioned that higher excise duties on tobacco and alcoholic beverages, effective November, could weigh on brewers and tobacco players.