Stephens analyst Jim Salera presented analysis, built on the proprietary Monthly Data Drive-Through and U.S. Census data. The analyst compared the distinct footprints of Wingstop Inc. (NASDAQ:WING) and Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG).
CMG Vs. WING
The analyst says that the WING customer base is notably more diverse, with the Hispanic household mix being 8 points higher and the Black household mix 3 points higher than CMG.
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This difference in affluence is highlighted by the fact that only 18.6% of WING units are in areas with household incomes above $100K (CMG is at 28.3%), the analyst says.
Despite covering similar population sizes, WING’s markets have incomes that are 7%–11% lower and feature a significantly more diverse ethnic mix than CMG’s.
Given this value-leaning positioning, the analyst anticipates Hispanic consumer softness will remain a near-term pressure point for WING.
Conversely, CMG’s more affluent trade areas should offer greater pricing flexibility and steadier spending patterns, influencing performance through FY26, adds the analyst.
Estimates
Salera writes that they have accordingly reduced comp expectations for both brands.
These footprint differences are expected to have demand implications in 2026, says the analyst.
Overall, the analyst concludes WING's younger, denser, and more diverse consumer base ensures long-term growth potential but also creates near-term sensitivity due to current economic pressure on lower-income and Hispanic consumers in 2025.
CMG expects to release quarterly results on Oct. 28, and WING will release results on Nov. 4.
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